Don’t make a ‘rookie’ mistake

Fantasy football owners who drafted Adrian Peterson (the unstoppable Minnesota Viking, not his Chicago Bear counterpart) last year had more than their fair share of “I told you so moments.”

The rookie running back took a pass 60 yards for a touchdown in a Week 1 win over the Falcons, and never looked back, racking up 1,341 rushing yards on the season with a 5.4-yard-per-carry average, and scored 12 touchdowns — six of which came in two three-score games.

Not bad for a guy who shared carries with Chester Taylor, and had the likes of Tarvaris Jackson and Brooks Bollinger handing him the ball all season.

But be wary, fantasy owners, Adrian Peterson’s superhuman season is the exception, not the rule, when it comes to the fantasy impact of rookies.

Earlier this week, Gene Wang of the Washington Post wrote this piece (link may be dead as you have to subscribe to the Washington Post to read it online) lauding Darren McFadden as the next great back that fantasy owners should draft.

He even goes so far as to warn fantasy owners not make the “blunder” of passing on the new Oakland Raider the way many passed on Peterson last year:

McFadden is a must-draft in the first round and a must-start even though he appears part of a jumbled conglomeration of running backs in Oakland. It does not matter one iota that the Raiders signed incumbent Justin Fargas to a $12 million extension, or that Dominic Rhodes restructured his contract in order to stay with the team. Neither of those backs can provide the momentum-altering jolt of one McFadden off-tackle run.

There’s no questioning McFadden’s explosiveness, but for first-year players, the potential doesn’t usually pan out into fantasy gold.

Let’s say Wang’s right, and after playing musical chairs in the backfield for the first couple weeks of the 2008 season (he also reminds us that LaMont Jordan and Michael Bush are still Raiders), the team establishes McFadden as the go-to guy.

In that case, an 1,100-yard, 10-touchdown season would have Raiders fans crying much-needed tears of joy, and the former Razorback would likely collect Rookie of the Year honors.

But there’s a lot of ifs in that equation. McFadden would have to mesh with the Oakland offense immediately, Fargas (who averaged more than 70 yards a game last year) would have to be content with fewer carries, and the team would have to flat-out give up on Jordan and/or Rhodes.

Peterson was able to overcome sharing carries and an iffy quarterback situation to turn in one of the more memorable rookie seasons of the past decade. But for every Adrian Peterson there’s a Ron Dayne or Thomas Jones that doesn’t get close to reaching expectations heading into his rookie season. Even backs like Cadillac Williams or Willis McGahee — backs who had great rookie seasons — haven’t reached the yardage or touchdown totals of seasoned veterans.

Joseph Addai, Brian Westbrook, Clinton Portis, Marion Barber, Willie Parker (yes, despite a measly two scores last year) may not be sexy picks like McFadden, but common sense says they’re top-tier to not-quite-top-tier backs that will put up solid, if not better than solid, numbers each week.

Rookies like McFadden, on the other had, are big question marks for carries, let alone yards and touchdowns.

If you want to be the one to say “I told you so” on the chance McFadden pans out as an immediate fantasy star, by all means, he’s yours for the taking. But remember: there’s likely a league full of commissioners that won’t hesitate to remind you if the pick doesn’t pan out.

Pick or pass: Drew Brees

Fantasy football owners who put their eggs in the Drew Brees basket on draft day in 2007 probably don’t even want to think about it.

Brees was coming off a mammoth 2006 season in which he threw for more than 4,400 yards and brought the Saints within one win of playing in the Super Bowl. The city of New Orleans was back into football, the ceiling was high for standouts Marques Colston and Reggie Bush, and the Saints, in a suddenly Michael Vick-less NFC South, looked set to make another offense-heavy postseason run.

But after four games (including an opening night trouncing by the Colts), Brees had more interceptions (9) and fumbles (2) than touchdown passes (1). The Saints were 0-4, and a lot of Drew Brees owners in head-to-head leagues were also struggling in the win column.

Not exactly what you want out of your top QB.

While fantasy owners may forever associate Brees’ 2008 value with last year’s pitiful start, a good look at his stats show that it probably isn’t wise to swear off the New Orleans quarterback forever.

Believe it or not, Brees actually threw for slightly MORE yards in 2007 (4,423) than he did in 2006 (4,418). His completion percentage rose three points to 67.3 percent (second only to Tom Brady among QBs who started at least 10 games).

He manged to maintain that completion percentage while attempting a league-high 652 passes (Brady was second with 578 attempts). He threw 18 interceptions, but still cracked the top seven in touchdowns with 28. Take away the first four games, and that’s 27 scores and 9 picks over a 12-game span.

The most striking stat from Brees in 2007: Despite attempting the most passes in the league, he was sacked only 16 times — just 2.4 percent (league best) of the times he dropped back to pass.

So here’s a QB that got sacked less than Brady or Peyton Manning, threw more passes than anyone, threw for more yards than his previous “career year,” yet his stock has fallen.

This is a chance to pull off the steal of your draft, right?

Well, here’s the problem with Brees: unlike 2006, he threw little in the way of long touchdowns in 2007.

In yardage bonus leagues (where longer touchdowns equal more points) long Sports Center-worthy touchdown passes are key. Even in standard TD leagues, longer touchdowns mean points for the score, plus points for the yards the quarterback racks up on the throw.

In 2006, Brees threw 12 TDs over 30 yards, according to Pro Football Reference. Through the first 12 weeks of 2007, he threw just one touchdown pass of that length, and just three for the entire season. Sure, injuries to Deuce McAllister, Bush, and an overall ineffective running game probably meant that defenses were more prepared for the pass, but the drop in Brees’ big plays has to be a concern for fantasy owners.

It had to kill Brees owners to watch later-round QBs like Tony Romo, Brett Favre, and waiver-wonder Derek Anderson heaving long touchdowns while their top QB was putting together 40-pass games with no big fantasy payoff.

What do you think?

You need a QB, and the top guns are off the board. Do you pick Brees or do you pass?

And so it begins…..

Pop that champagne cork Brandon Marshall — the West Coast Nonsense party has begun. Welcome to what will hopefully be a reliable source for anything and everything fantasy football. Sure, I could call it a “Fantasy Football analysis” site, but you and I know that your analysis is probably as good as mine. Whether you’re a fantasy rookie or seasoned vet, enjoy the commentary and spread the word.