Fantasy football owners who put their eggs in the Drew Brees basket on draft day in 2007 probably don’t even want to think about it.
Brees was coming off a mammoth 2006 season in which he threw for more than 4,400 yards and brought the Saints within one win of playing in the Super Bowl. The city of New Orleans was back into football, the ceiling was high for standouts Marques Colston and Reggie Bush, and the Saints, in a suddenly Michael Vick-less NFC South, looked set to make another offense-heavy postseason run.
But after four games (including an opening night trouncing by the Colts), Brees had more interceptions (9) and fumbles (2) than touchdown passes (1). The Saints were 0-4, and a lot of Drew Brees owners in head-to-head leagues were also struggling in the win column.
Not exactly what you want out of your top QB.
While fantasy owners may forever associate Brees’ 2008 value with last year’s pitiful start, a good look at his stats show that it probably isn’t wise to swear off the New Orleans quarterback forever.
Believe it or not, Brees actually threw for slightly MORE yards in 2007 (4,423) than he did in 2006 (4,418). His completion percentage rose three points to 67.3 percent (second only to Tom Brady among QBs who started at least 10 games).
He manged to maintain that completion percentage while attempting a league-high 652 passes (Brady was second with 578 attempts). He threw 18 interceptions, but still cracked the top seven in touchdowns with 28. Take away the first four games, and that’s 27 scores and 9 picks over a 12-game span.
The most striking stat from Brees in 2007: Despite attempting the most passes in the league, he was sacked only 16 times — just 2.4 percent (league best) of the times he dropped back to pass.
So here’s a QB that got sacked less than Brady or Peyton Manning, threw more passes than anyone, threw for more yards than his previous “career year,” yet his stock has fallen.
This is a chance to pull off the steal of your draft, right?
Well, here’s the problem with Brees: unlike 2006, he threw little in the way of long touchdowns in 2007.
In yardage bonus leagues (where longer touchdowns equal more points) long Sports Center-worthy touchdown passes are key. Even in standard TD leagues, longer touchdowns mean points for the score, plus points for the yards the quarterback racks up on the throw.
In 2006, Brees threw 12 TDs over 30 yards, according to Pro Football Reference. Through the first 12 weeks of 2007, he threw just one touchdown pass of that length, and just three for the entire season. Sure, injuries to Deuce McAllister, Bush, and an overall ineffective running game probably meant that defenses were more prepared for the pass, but the drop in Brees’ big plays has to be a concern for fantasy owners.
It had to kill Brees owners to watch later-round QBs like Tony Romo, Brett Favre, and waiver-wonder Derek Anderson heaving long touchdowns while their top QB was putting together 40-pass games with no big fantasy payoff.
What do you think?
You need a QB, and the top guns are off the board. Do you pick Brees or do you pass?
