Ocho-cinco vs. ocho-cuatro

Is 84 > 85?

Probably the most interesting aspect of the “Who has more fantasy value: Chad Johnson or T.J. Houshmandzadeh?” debate is…well…that there is no debate.

The vast majority of mock drafts and pre-draft rankings peg Houshmandzadeh as the more valuable receiver heading into 2008, and the reasons are pretty simple: receptions and touchdowns.

For the second straight season, Houshmandzadeh topped Johnson in both categories last year. No. 84 led the league with 112 catches (tied with Wes Welker) compared to Johnson’s 93 receptions, and he scored 12 touchdowns while Johnson hit paydirt eight times.

Houshmandzadeh gets the ball more often (a big plus in PPR leagues), he’s become Carson Palmer’s favorite red-zone target, and add Johnson’s much-publicized preseason pouting sessions to the mix, and it’s easy to see why fantasy owners are quick to rank No. 84 ahead of No. 85.

But the yards-per-catch discrepancy between Houshmandzadeh and Johnson is eye-opening. Last year, Johnson racked up 1,440 receiving yards (third best behind Wayne and Moss) for an average of 15.5 yards per catch (third best among receivers with at least 60 catches). Houshmandzadeh, despite catching 19 more balls in 2007, totaled about 300 yards less than Johnson (1,143 yards) for a 10.2-yards-per-catch average.

Johnson averaged five yards more a catch, and he’s still widely considered the second-best fantasy option in the Bengals receiving corps.

Of course, the numbers make sense to anyone who’s seen the Bengals play over the last two years. Johnson is the big-play, deep-down-the-sideline threat, while Houshmandzadeh runs shorter routes and gets more looks. That’s led Johnson’s numbers to be more erratic (following a two-score, 209-yard performance in Week 2, he didn’t score a touchdown for eight weeks and only broke 100 yards twice), while Houshmandzadeh spread out his scores over 10 games, and had at least seven catches in nine different games.

But in other 2007 offenses, the big-play receivers, not the shorter-route-running possession guys, were the biggest fantasy scorers on their respective teams. In New England, Wes Welker caught more balls than Randy Moss, but had just eight scores compared to Moss’ record-setting 23 touchdowns. In Green Bay, Donald Driver had more receptions than Greg Jennings, but Jennings scored 12 times while Driver managed just two scores. And in Pittsburgh, Hines Ward (despite playing just 13 games) had more catches than Santonio Holmes, but the second-year Steeler had eight scores to Ward’s seven.

So why aren’t the Bengals getting more scores out of Johnson and his 15.5-yards-per catch average?

A lot of it may have to do with a 2007 Bengals defense that was shaky, at its best, and making the likes of Jamal Lewis look like Bo Jackson, at its worst.

The Bengals played from behind a lot last season. With teams protecting big leads against Palmer and co., opposing secondaries were more likely to give up 10-yard outs and clock-eating passes across the middle (Houshmandzadeh territory) than leave Johnson single-covered along the sideline and give up a momentum-changing 80-yard bomb. When teams protect leads, they put a safety net around the big-play threat. When they’re in close games, the coverage is tighter, allowing playmakers to shake cornerbacks and get open downfield.

So despite the talent and big-play threat that is Chad Johnson, his fate may be more tied to the Bengals’ defense than Houshmandzadeh’s potential. If that’s the case, I’ll join the masses and take No. 84 over No. 85 too.