What’s in a sleeper?

Editor’s note: This is the first of many articles to appear on this blog that taps into the wealth of folks out there that read, write, and research fantasy football. They know their stuff, they have interesting things to say, so why not use them as sources?

If Tavaris Jackson is your quarterback, you're probably a sleeper

Every fantasy football owner heads into his/her draft wanting to land a sleeper — a late round pick that isn’t high on anyone else’s radar that pans out into fantasy gold.

But in an age where the potential fantasy value of every NFL player is analyzed, re-analyzed and inevitably over analyzed, do sleepers still exist?

That depends on who you ask.

“Honestly, we don’t think there’s such thing as a “sleeper” anymore,” said the guys (who asked to remain anonymous) behind the recently revamped fantasy football blog This Just In. “There are so many magazines, Web sites, podcasts, etc. dedicated to fantasy football that rarely is there a player that the average fantasy owner doesn’t know about.”

Indeed, there isn’t a shortage of voices out there talking about fantasy football, but Brandon Marshall of The Fantasy Football Geek Blog says that buried beneath the flood of predictions and buzz surrounding the fantasy value of NFL players, there are still sleepers to be found.

“Many times you can look at [a player's] stats and see that [he's] poised for a big year,” Marshall told West Coast Nonsense. “But if it’s too obvious, then everyone will know and [he] can’t really be called a sleeper. Your sleeper picks are all about taking a gamble with one of your later picks, hoping that with little risk, it will pay off big time.”

Marshall highlights who he thinks are sleepers for the upcoming in a recent column “2008 sleepers and undervalued players.” Among the listed players: receivers Sidney Rice (Min), James Hardy (Buf) and James Jones (GB), running back Ricky Williams (Mia), and tight end Zach Miller (Oak).

Both Marshall and the guys from This Just In agreed that trying to identify sleepers is less of a science than it is gut instinct. When trying to claim fame to landing the next big sleeper, go for the players coming off injury-shortened or flat-out pitiful 2007 campaigns, according to the guys behind both blogs. In the end, it’s educated guesswork, at best, they said.

“The guys that come out of nowhere, like Earnest Graham and Ryan Grant last year were never ’sleepers’ on anyone’s lists,” said the guys at This Just in. “They were waiver wire adds that paid off for the lucky ones that grabbed them. Your sleepers are the ones you end up cutting to draft guys likes that.”