The importance of drafting Earnest

Consider the following running backs:

Player A scored 12 touchdowns (10 of them rushing) in 2007, and rushed for 975 yards on 204 attempts for an average of 4.8 yards per carry. He broke the 100-yard barrier three times, and caught 44 passes on the year.

Player B tallied similar stats, scoring 10 touchdowns in 2007 (all of them rushing), and rushed for 898 yards on 222 caries for a 4-yards-per-carry average. He broke the 100-yard rushing mark three times (matching Player A), but caught five more passes for a total of 49 receptions.

With the 81st pick, I'll take this 10-TD back.

Player A is Dallas running back Marion Barber, whose average draft position in Yahoo! fantasy drafts is around the ninth overall pick. As for Player B? That’s Tampa Bay back Earnest Graham, whose average Yahoo! draft position is pick number 81.

Just to be clear, that’s two running backs with similar stats, with one a consensus first round pick, and the second going an average of 72 picks later.

Part of Graham’s unflattering Yahoo! average draft position probably has to do with thoughts that he could share carries with newly signed veteran Warrick Dunn or a potentially rejuvenated Cadillac Williams. But those theories have subsided as of late, according to one writer close to the Buccaneers, who said Graham is the clear-cut starter, and fantasy owners and Buccaneers fans alike should expect good things from the Tampa Bay back.

“Earnest Graham has a secure hold on the Bucs starting running back spot,” said Charlie Campbell, beat writer for Pewter Report magazine and PewterReport.com, a magazine and Web site that cover all things Buccaneers. “In the second half, the Bucs will look to pound the ball with Graham, and at the end of the game he should lead the team in carries and will be their goal line back.”

Although Graham’s receiving numbers may be erratic with seasoned pass-catcher Dunn getting some time in the backfield, Campbell said Graham’s rushing statistics will be solid. He guessed a 2008 campaign of 300 carries, 1,150 yards and 13 touchdowns, with much of that coming in the second half against worn down defenses (Marion Barber also did much of his damage late in games in 2007).

But there’s still a fair share of folks out there that aren’t sold on Graham, and won’t be reaching for him in fantasy drafts.

Lead ESPN fantasy columnist Matthew Berry pegs Graham as the 36th overall pick (22nd best back available) in his most recent rankings, and Yahoo! analyst Brandon Funston puts Graham at 31st over all (the 16th best running back).

“I think Graham, despite the decent numbers last season, is a risky RB2,” said Michael McNeil of the fantasy football Web site TheHazean.com, adding that fantasy owners may be better off with Graham as their third running back. He added that Laurence Maroney of New England, Michael Turner of Atlanta and Reggie Bush of New Orleans are all safer bets heading into draft day.

McNeil acknowledged that Graham does have father time on his side, as the 28-year-old back could become a “workhorse” in an offense of aging starters at other key positions (quarterback Jeff Garcia is 38, receiver Joey Galloway turns 37 in November, and Dunn isn’t exactly a young gun at 33 years old).

But despite Graham’s potential, McNeil said his gut tells him not to reach for the Tampa Bay back in drafts.

“He has not proven himself, to me, as a solid, consistent contributor at the running back position,” he said. “But last year was his first in that capacity, so he may grow into a more consistent role.”